Terracom Limited

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Terracom has counter-cyclically placed itself in a position to improve efficiency and margins plus pursue organic mine growth. Cashflows will further swell once currently depressed coal prices rebound. These assets appear undervalued compared to our Base Case $0.27/share NPV valuation of TER. TER has upside on management’s record of delivering new projects from currently controlled development assets and/or by opportunistically securing acquisitions.

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A Laser-Like Focus on Adding Value

Since August 1st, Kazia Therapeutics has announced US Food & Drug Administration fast track status for one program & orphan drug and rare paediatric disease designation for another, while finishing the period by announcing a new trial for its cancer drug, paxalisib. Over the next nine months investors are likely to see six data readouts from five programs. How fast can a company go?

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Antisense Therapeutics (ANP) Potential Competitor on the Canvas

Sarepta Therapeutics’ (NASDAQ: SRPT) SRP-9001, a putative gene therapy (GT) for all Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) patients has failed to demonstrate an improvement clinical function in a doubleblind, randomised, placebo-controlled phase II trial in 41 patients. This event significantly improves the commercial prospects Antisense Therapeutics’ DMD therapy, ATL1102.

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The EV Megatrend – Responsibly sourced lithium the “new oil”

Ultra pure battery grade lithium supply opportunity

Lake Resources (LKE.AX) plans to develop its 100% owned 4.4Mt Kachi lithium deposit, located in Argentina, using Lilac Solutions Inc’s patented direct lithium extraction technology. Lilac’s flowsheet is simple and supports fast development of the upstream, which is often plagued by long lead times. Kachi emissions, water and waste footprints will be low with no mining or evaporation ponds required and its 99.97% battery grade lithium carbonate, which enables improved battery performance, should achieve premium pricing in a rising market. First production planned early 2024.

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And a Door Opens Wide

Antisense Therapeutics’ lead drug sits at the nexus of two areas of drug development that are starting to grow dramatically in importance. One relates to its mode of action and the other to the type of drug it is. Combine that with management who know the drug very well and strong results in a trial in a horrible disease afflicting children, and you have the basis for true value creation.

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A Laser-Like Focus on Adding Value

Since August 1st, Kazia Therapeutics has announced US Food & Drug Administration fast track status for one program & orphan drug and rare paediatric disease designation for another, while finishing the period by announcing a new trial for its cancer drug, paxalisib. Over the next nine months investors are likely to see six data readouts from five programs. How fast can a company go?

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A Laser-Like Focus on Adding Value

Since August 1st, Kazia Therapeutics has announced US Food & Drug Administration fast track status for one program & orphan drug and rare paediatric disease designation for another, while finishing the period by announcing a new trial for its cancer drug, paxalisib. Over the next nine months investors are likely to see six data readouts from five programs. How fast can a company go?

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The EV Megatrend – Responsibly sourced lithium the “new oil”

Ultra pure battery grade lithium supply opportunity

Lake Resources (LKE.AX) plans to develop its 100% owned 4.4Mt Kachi lithium deposit, located in Argentina, using Lilac Solutions Inc’s patented direct lithium extraction technology. Lilac’s flowsheet is simple and supports fast development of the upstream, which is often plagued by long lead times. Kachi emissions, water and waste footprints will be low with no mining or evaporation ponds required and its 99.97% battery grade lithium carbonate, which enables improved battery performance, should achieve premium pricing in a rising market. First production planned early 2024.

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Kazia Therapeutics - Do Two A+ Deals Foreshadow THE DEAL?

Licensing deals are the life blood of small pharmaceutical companies, representing their exit from the development of a molecule, often in a staged manner, and a coalescing of the value they have added to a compound. Kazia Therapeutics has done two licensing deals in the space of a month, something unique for an Australian company. In this report, we look at those deals, assess their quality and look at other takeaways they provide.

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Cantrixil Iicensed To Oasmia Pharmaceuticals & Kazia Shareholders Learn a Positive Lesson About Kazia

Kazia Therapeutics has licensed its ovarian cancer drug, Cantrixil, to Swedish drug company Oasmia Therapeutics (STO: OASM) for USD4m upfront, USD42m in milestones and a double-digit royalty on commercial sales. This is a positive event for Kazia and from the stand point of proving its deal making skills to the market.

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SNO Presentations: Late-Interim Results from Phase II GBM & Phase I DIPG Studies Released

Paxalisib’s phase II trial in unmethylated MGMT promoter proven glioblastoma multiforme (uGBM) is as positive as a single arm trial can be, while the phase I trial in diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma (DIPG) enables paxalisib combination studies in the indication.

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Another Deal – Kazia Inlicences New Anti-Cancer Med From Highly Impressive Partner

That is three deals in two-months, with Kazia in-licencing EVT801, an oral, small molecule, first-in-class cancer drug candidate from Evotec SE (FRA:EVT; Market Cap (MC): €5.4b (AUD8.4b). Kazia gained exclusive global rights to the drug for €1m (AUD1.6m) upfront, €308m (AUD480m) in milestones and a tiered single-digit royalty on sales. Evotec, whose corporate strategy precludes taking drugs into the clinic, developed EVT801 with Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY; MC:USD128.9b (AUD165.7b) meaning the provenance of the compound is impeccable. Kazia has slated EVT801 to start a phase I trial in 2HCY21. Another A+ deal by Kazia in our eyes.

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Efti a highly sought after compound for mono & combo Cancer treatment

Immutep (IMM.AX) is one of the most promising drug developers listed on the ASX. A core competency is its unsurpassed understanding of the biology of the lymphocyte activation gene-3 (LAG-3) and the development of therapeutics based on that knowledge. In this report, we take a deep-dive into Immutep’s project pipeline. We look at major factors in oncology drug development and the broader market and how Immutep are likely to support the value of its lead asset, eftilagimod alpha (efti), currently in mid-late-stage clinical trials. Finally, we look at the company’s intellectual property and management, the latter being often overlooked by investors.

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TerraCom Limited (TER) Margins rising on pricing, volumes and management control

Headwinds saw a management refocus – now tailwinds

TER is now generating positive EBITDA margins as it emerges from a difficult period that severely impacted their newly acquired South African coal operations. Its largest customer, power generator Eskom experienced maintenance issues across its generation portfolio resulting in reduced coal purchasing. Weather and depletion of Kangala mine also impacted unit costs. All these issues were compounded by the severe Covid-19 conditions that prevented much closer management control of operations.

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Market leading lifelong learning platform technology company in Australia and SE Asia

OLL’s platform enables the delivery of project-based, social learning to encourage interaction among users and nurture a community of collaborative learners. The platform provides a comprehensive learning environment for all types of online education, from short courses through to micro credentials and online degrees. Since incorporation, OLL has enabled education providers to deliver thousands of online courses through its platform to over 2.8m registered users worldwide who have made over 4.7m enrolments, making it one of the world’s largest online education platforms. At the end of 1Q 2021, OLL had 177 larger education providers on its platform.

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PayGroup (PYG) Multi-country Payroll and HR Management in one cloud application

PayGroup (PYG) is a leading player in the Business Processes Outsourcing (BPO) and Human Capital Management (HCM) markets in the Asia-Pacific. The following points are key elements of the investment thesis for PYG.

They deliver multi-country BPO services and cloud SaaS HCM solutions, assisting companies to manage employees in multiple, complex jurisdictions. Multi-country service has been a core growth driver, and PYG can offer Asia- Pacific coverage to US/EU partners to construct global BPO/HCM solutions.

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Antisense Therapeutics FDA Feedback as Good As It Gets

Antisense Therapeutics has received formal written feedback from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on its development plans for ATL1102 for non-ambulant patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). In a phase II trial, ATL1102 performed extremely well. The regulatory path for a disease like DMD can be simplified and shortened. To achieve this outcome, though, determining the requirements of regulators is paramount.

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NOVONIX Limited

Application for NASDAQ listing made in May
Only qualified US supplier of battery grade anode materials

NOVONIX (NVX.ASX) is developing a synthetic graphite anode material plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee and a cathode pilot line in Nova Scotia. There are two forms of graphite used in Li-ion batteries (LIBs): natural and synthetic. Despite the US having around 6.3Mt of natural graphite resource there is NO reserve and, consequently, NO production. Further, there is NO processing of ultra-pure synthetic graphite for LIBs either. As a result, the US imports 100% of its anode and 100% of its cathode materials primarily from China. With up to 185lbs or 85kg of graphite in an average Electric Vehicle’s (EVs) anode, this reliance on China for most of the battery supply chain risks limiting the US’ electrification aspirations. Global demand for LIB anode materials was 250kt in 2020 and BMI suggests this could grow to almost 3,000kt by 2030 and a remarkable 6,750kt by 2040. With totally exposed supply chains; Europe is moving to secure its battery materials; so pressure must be building for the US to do the same. NVX has first mover advantage as the only qualified local supplier of battery grade anode materials.

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Phillips 66 to acquire 16% strategic investment in NVX

NOVONIX (NVX) announces strategic investor Phillips 66 (PSX) has entered into an agreement with NVX to acquire 77.9m new shares for US$150m (A$203m). PSX is the worlds largest producer of speciality petroleum coke a precursor for battery grade synthetic graphite anode materials found with an Enterprise Value of US$47.5Bn and assets of US$57Bn. Post investment, which is subject to shareholder approval, PSX will hold 16% of the expanded capital base of NVX and will have a Director nominated to the NVX Board. Given the Board, management and staff hold close to 50% of the NVX register, we consider it highly likely that shareholders will approve this transaction.

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Terracom has counter-cyclically placed itself in a position to improve efficiency and margins plus pursue organic mine growth. Cashflows will further swell once currently depressed coal prices rebound. These assets appear undervalued compared to our Base Case $0.27/share NPV valuation of TER. TER has upside on management’s record of delivering new projects from currently controlled development assets and/or by opportunistically securing acquisitions.

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Trigg Mining (TMG) Sustainable sulphate of potash projects to help secure global food production

A new chapter is opening in Australia’s rich history of mineral endowment, as an emerging group of producers bring on-stream deposits of organic sulphate of potash (SoP), a premium fertiliser product. Trigg Mining (TMG) is a WA-based exploration company specifically focussed on the potassium mineral fertiliser Sulphate of Potash (SOP).

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Calima Energy - Blackspur Acquisition is Transformative

We initiate coverage on Calima Energy (“Calima” or the “Company”) on a free cash flow (“FCF”) basis with a value of AUD0.025/share.

Calima is an Australian listed exploration and production (E&P) company, and a Canadian oil and gas pure play. Its assets include a large-scale liquids rich gas play in the Montney fairway in British Columbia, a well-established oil and gas producing region with a supportive energy production policy.

On April 30, 2021, Calima completed the acquisition of Blackspur Oil (“Blackspur’). Blackspur was caught out in a poor oil environment while laden with a heavy debt burden and Calima was able to capitalise on the opportunity, acquiring the target at a deep discount of C$61.5m, including C$40.0m in debt. This is against over C$200m invested by Blackspur since inception in 2012. The acquisition is earnings accretive and has raised Calima’s status to the realm of a mid-tier, ASX-listed oil producer.

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Lake Resources Limited

Low cost funding pathway opening up

Lake Resources (LKE. ASX) announces low cost funding pathway Normally, an offtake contract is signed first and then project funding follows. However, in this case the reverse has occurred. The Export Credit Agency (ECA) of Britain, the UK Export Finance (UKEF) has provided a non-binding Expression of Interest (EOI) to provide or underwrite up to 70% of the finance for developing Kachi. Interestingly, the ECA has also indicated it could provide up to 70% of the cost of expanding Kachi. This really does support LKE’s earlier claim that the market is pushing for an expansion of Kachi. ECA debt normally comes in the form of guarantees. However, the EOI suggests the ECA may also direct lend; subject to due diligence and standard project finance terms. LKE suggests direct lending could comprise ~30% of Treasury linked debt with interest rates of around 3%. ECA guarantees should facilitate the completion of syndicated senior debt, at an estimated 5-6% in the current market. The effective “credit wrap” provided by ECA support, puts LKE in an attractive position to secure a Tier-1 offtake partner.

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Lake Resources Limited - Update

Lilac Solution Inc backs its own tech – taking equity in Kachi

Lake Resources (LKE. ASX) announces that its clean technology partner Lilac Solutions Ltd (Lilac), will join the Argentinian Kachi project, earning up to 25% at the asset level, subject to performance hurdles. Lilac brings a patented new untried technology to the lithium brine industry. However, offtakers and some investors perceive new technology risk to be a drag on project timelines. Addressing this, Lilac will take a direct participation in Kachi, which is testament to their belief in their patented ion-exchange technology, which although new to the lithium industry has been used extensively in the water and uranium industries. Lilac believes the time is right to investigate sustainable extraction technology in an area that produces 40% of the world’s lithium.

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Accelerating free cashflow secures funding; & boosts re-rating potential

In cashflow we trust – funding options expand. Increasingly carbon-conscious debt markets have reduced supply of credit to coal groups. In TER’s year-long quest to refinance its ~US$170m Euroclear Bond it succeeded in extending the maturity from 30th June 2021 until 8th October 2021. TER is in advanced negotiations with a consortium to replace this Bond, and secure extra funds for TER to consider a new South African mine and potentially invest in Guinean bauxite and iron ore; at a cheaper ~10%pa interest cost. The Euroclear’s cost is 12.5%pa plus 0.75% Blair Athol revenue.

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Paediatric Investigation Plan Almost Certain To Get the Tick and Other Notable Events

Antisense Therapeutics reported on Friday 30 September (2021), that it had received a draft opinion recommending agreement with the company’s Paediatric Investigation Plan (PIP) for the development of ATL1102 for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) from the Paediatric Committee (PDCO) for the European Medicines Agency (EMA). This is not a final decision, but we understand it is very unusual for the EMA not to adopt a recommended PIP. A PIP must be adopted by the EMA before a medicine can be approved for use in children in EU Member States. The receipt of the of the draft opinion by Antisense is a significant positive for the company.

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Strategic Vanadium-battery growth with Titanium & Iron earnings resiliency

TNG Ltd (TNG) is an ASX-listed (ASX: TNG) technology owner and developer of the world-class Mount Peake near-surface vanadifferous titanomagnetite deposit. To unlock value, TNG will concentrate ore from its central Northern Territory mine for processing through its patented TIVAN® process produce three premium quality revenue streams: hi-purity vanadium pentoxide (V2O5) for steel alloys and Vanadium Redox Flow batteries, a quality titanium pigment for paints and a premium steel input with >64%Fe iron ore fines.

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Scoping Study determines 4.5-year payback for transformational Lake Throssell project

Trigg Mining has announced completion of a Scoping Study on the economic potential of its flagship Lake Throssell Sulphate of Potash project. The results demonstrate a compelling business case for the development of a major new long-life, sustainable SOP project, with strong financial returns.
Lake Throssell will produce 245ktpa SOP once ramped up, over an initial life of mine of 21 years. The estimated operating cash costs of $341/t SOP are low by global standards, and would place Lake Throssell in the lowest-cost quartile of the global SOP industry cost curve, based on CRU analysis.
Based on the new information released in the Scoping Study, we have updated our forecasts for the Lake Throssell project. We derive a DCF equity value for TMG of $0.37 per share, with potential upside as its projects de-risk through further development stages. We note TMG's projects still remain in relatively early stages with associated higher levels of risk and uncertainty.

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A Truly Undervalued Company

In May 2021, we published a comprehensive research report (CRR) on Immutep Ltd. We were so impressed that we felt it imperative that a follow-up report valued the company, because the market was not seeing what we did: eftilagimod alpha (efti). This drug was giving a solid signal of activity as a monotherapy in a large breast cancer trial and extremely strong signals of clinical activity when used in combination with pembrolizumab (Keytruda^®, Merck) to treat previously untreated/unresectable PD-1/L1 naïve non-small cell lung cancer and as a second-line treatment for PD-1/L-1 naïve recurrent head and neck cancer. Additionally, we saw a first-rate management team - an absolute requirement for a successful drug development company.

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WTL in a Strong Position to Consolidate or be Acquired

Over the past three years WTL has undergone a transformational restructure to reduce its focus and reliance on B2C and non- recurring revenue, to emerge as a primarily B2B-focused enterprise targeting recurring revenue lines. The successful implementation of the strategy and complementary acquisitions should now see the company return to profitable growth in

On our forecast, the business trades on a FY22 PE of 8.4x and EV/EBITDA of 5.1x. This is a large discount to peers, which on average are on 18x PE and EV/EBITDA of 7.0x. Successful execution of management’s strategy, coupled with potential acquisitions should result in a re-rating towards peers.

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A Truly Undervalued Company

In May 2021, we published a comprehensive research report (CRR) on Immutep Ltd. We were so impressed that we felt it imperative that a follow-up report valued the company, because the market was not seeing what we did: eftilagimod alpha (efti). This drug was giving a solid signal of activity as a monotherapy in a large breast cancer trial and extremely strong signals of clinical activity when used in combination with pembrolizumab (Keytruda^®, Merck) to treat previously untreated/unresectable PD-1/L1 naïve non-small cell lung cancer and as a second-line treatment for PD-1/L-1 naïve recurrent head and neck cancer. Additionally, we saw a first-rate management team - an absolute requirement for a successful drug development company.

Download Research Report IMMP (NasdaqGM) 13 October 2021

Calima Energy - Increasing our Target

In August 2021, we initiated coverage on Calima Energy (“Calima” or the “Company”), forecasting a value of A$0.025/share which translates to 0,26/share if one accounts for the 20:1 share consolidation completed on the 30th August 2021. The Company’s share price has risen substantially from $0.173/share at the beginning of September to $0.25/share on the 11th of October with no sign of stopping.

Calima is an Australian listed exploration and production (E&P) company, and a Canadian oil and gas pure play. Its assets include a large-scale liquids rich gas play in the Montney fairway in British Columbia, a well-established oil and gas producing region with a supportive energy production policy. In addition, Calima acquired Blackspur, a producing oil company which had previously delivered over 5,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) at its peak in 2018.

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Fast growing BNPL provider trading at discount to peer group

LBY has a market leading position in NZ BNPL, and a growing presence in Australia and the UK. The large UK retail market of £403b and ~28% online penetration represents a significant opportunity for LBY, with only ~1.7% BNPL adoption (~6% of online) leaving significant runway for growth.
LBY has a capital efficient business model due to its differentiated weekly payment cycle, which allows it to turn over its capital base approximately 21x pa compared to 18x for fortnightly payment options.
LBY has developed a number of strategic partnerships with key merchants as well as professional sporting clubs, which strengthen the business in high growth sectors, raise brand awareness and drive customer acquisition. Growth in customers drives more merchants onto the platform, which in turn drives more customer acquisition, creating a virtuous cycle of growth.

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Can vanadium emulate lithium’s rise?

The green electrification mega-trend requires many types of energy storage to match intermittent renewable power generation to on-demand electricity needs. As for lithium, the emergence of new energy storage demand is a game changer for high-purity vanadium, with the accelerating pace of Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries deployment for grid-power storage backup. In this report we focus upon these changing dynamics for the vanadium industry, to becoming a new critical ingredient for the global energy transition.

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Terracom Limited

ASX Code

TER

Sector

Energy

Website

terracomresources.com

Company news

Thermal Coal Surge Boosts TerraCom

Tough Times Turning for TerraCom