by Staff Writers | May 9, 2022 | Tamboran Resources
Tamboran Resources (ASX: TBN) and its Beetaloo Basin acreage have just been given a huge vote of confidence as one of the United States’ most successful shale gas investors spends A$20 million to appear on the register of the company. Another $15 million will be...by Staff Writers | May 9, 2022 | Tamboran Resources
The Beetaloo Basin is shaping up to be Australia’s next big hydrocarbon province. An unconventional shale gas play of approximately 28,500km2, the Basin has attracted the attention and dollars of some of the world’s biggest names in shale gas exploration – attracted...
Terracom has counter-cyclically placed itself in a position to improve efficiency and margins plus pursue organic mine growth. Cashflows will further swell once currently depressed coal prices rebound. These assets appear undervalued compared to our Base Case $0.27/share NPV valuation of TER. TER has upside on management’s record of delivering new projects from currently controlled development assets and/or by opportunistically securing acquisitions.
Terracom has counter-cyclically placed itself in a position to improve efficiency and margins plus pursue organic mine growth. Cashflows will further swell once currently depressed coal prices rebound. These assets appear undervalued compared to our Base Case $0.27/share NPV valuation of TER. TER has upside on management’s record of delivering new projects from currently controlled development assets and/or by opportunistically securing acquisitions.
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Since August 1st, Kazia Therapeutics has announced US Food & Drug Administration fast track status for one program & orphan drug and rare paediatric disease designation for another, while finishing the period by announcing a new trial for its cancer drug, paxalisib. Over the next nine months investors are likely to see six data readouts from five programs. How fast can a company go?
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Sarepta Therapeutics’ (NASDAQ: SRPT) SRP-9001, a putative gene therapy (GT) for all Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) patients has failed to demonstrate an improvement clinical function in a doubleblind, randomised, placebo-controlled phase II trial in 41 patients. This event significantly improves the commercial prospects Antisense Therapeutics’ DMD therapy, ATL1102.
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Lake Resources (LKE.AX) plans to develop its 100% owned 4.4Mt Kachi lithium deposit, located in Argentina, using Lilac Solutions Inc’s patented direct lithium extraction technology. Lilac’s flowsheet is simple and supports fast development of the upstream, which is often plagued by long lead times. Kachi emissions, water and waste footprints will be low with no mining or evaporation ponds required and its 99.97% battery grade lithium carbonate, which enables improved battery performance, should achieve premium pricing in a rising market. First production planned early 2024.
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Antisense Therapeutics’ lead drug sits at the nexus of two areas of drug development that are starting to grow dramatically in importance. One relates to its mode of action and the other to the type of drug it is. Combine that with management who know the drug very well and strong results in a trial in a horrible disease afflicting children, and you have the basis for true value creation.
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Since August 1st, Kazia Therapeutics has announced US Food & Drug Administration fast track status for one program & orphan drug and rare paediatric disease designation for another, while finishing the period by announcing a new trial for its cancer drug, paxalisib. Over the next nine months investors are likely to see six data readouts from five programs. How fast can a company go?
Please fill out our Kazia Therapeutics and Corporate Connect Research subscription form below. Once completed you will be able to download this CCR Report on Kazia Therapeutics. View our privacy policy.
Since August 1st, Kazia Therapeutics has announced US Food & Drug Administration fast track status for one program & orphan drug and rare paediatric disease designation for another, while finishing the period by announcing a new trial for its cancer drug, paxalisib. Over the next nine months investors are likely to see six data readouts from five programs. How fast can a company go?
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Lake Resources (LKE.AX) plans to develop its 100% owned 4.4Mt Kachi lithium deposit, located in Argentina, using Lilac Solutions Inc’s patented direct lithium extraction technology. Lilac’s flowsheet is simple and supports fast development of the upstream, which is often plagued by long lead times. Kachi emissions, water and waste footprints will be low with no mining or evaporation ponds required and its 99.97% battery grade lithium carbonate, which enables improved battery performance, should achieve premium pricing in a rising market. First production planned early 2024.
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Licensing deals are the life blood of small pharmaceutical companies, representing their exit from the development of a molecule, often in a staged manner, and a coalescing of the value they have added to a compound. Kazia Therapeutics has done two licensing deals in the space of a month, something unique for an Australian company. In this report, we look at those deals, assess their quality and look at other takeaways they provide.
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Kazia Therapeutics has licensed its ovarian cancer drug, Cantrixil, to Swedish drug company Oasmia Therapeutics (STO: OASM) for USD4m upfront, USD42m in milestones and a double-digit royalty on commercial sales. This is a positive event for Kazia and from the stand point of proving its deal making skills to the market.
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Paxalisib’s phase II trial in unmethylated MGMT promoter proven glioblastoma multiforme (uGBM) is as positive as a single arm trial can be, while the phase I trial in diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma (DIPG) enables paxalisib combination studies in the indication.
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That is three deals in two-months, with Kazia in-licencing EVT801, an oral, small molecule, first-in-class cancer drug candidate from Evotec SE (FRA:EVT; Market Cap (MC): €5.4b (AUD8.4b). Kazia gained exclusive global rights to the drug for €1m (AUD1.6m) upfront, €308m (AUD480m) in milestones and a tiered single-digit royalty on sales. Evotec, whose corporate strategy precludes taking drugs into the clinic, developed EVT801 with Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY; MC:USD128.9b (AUD165.7b) meaning the provenance of the compound is impeccable. Kazia has slated EVT801 to start a phase I trial in 2HCY21. Another A+ deal by Kazia in our eyes.
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Immutep (IMM.AX) is one of the most promising drug developers listed on the ASX. A core competency is its unsurpassed understanding of the biology of the lymphocyte activation gene-3 (LAG-3) and the development of therapeutics based on that knowledge. In this report, we take a deep-dive into Immutep’s project pipeline. We look at major factors in oncology drug development and the broader market and how Immutep are likely to support the value of its lead asset, eftilagimod alpha (efti), currently in mid-late-stage clinical trials. Finally, we look at the company’s intellectual property and management, the latter being often overlooked by investors.
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Headwinds saw a management refocus – now tailwinds
TER is now generating positive EBITDA margins as it emerges from a difficult period that severely impacted their newly acquired South African coal operations. Its largest customer, power generator Eskom experienced maintenance issues across its generation portfolio resulting in reduced coal purchasing. Weather and depletion of Kangala mine also impacted unit costs. All these issues were compounded by the severe Covid-19 conditions that prevented much closer management control of operations.
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OLL’s platform enables the delivery of project-based, social learning to encourage interaction among users and nurture a community of collaborative learners. The platform provides a comprehensive learning environment for all types of online education, from short courses through to micro credentials and online degrees. Since incorporation, OLL has enabled education providers to deliver thousands of online courses through its platform to over 2.8m registered users worldwide who have made over 4.7m enrolments, making it one of the world’s largest online education platforms. At the end of 1Q 2021, OLL had 177 larger education providers on its platform.
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PayGroup (PYG) is a leading player in the Business Processes Outsourcing (BPO) and Human Capital Management (HCM) markets in the Asia-Pacific. The following points are key elements of the investment thesis for PYG.
They deliver multi-country BPO services and cloud SaaS HCM solutions, assisting companies to manage employees in multiple, complex jurisdictions. Multi-country service has been a core growth driver, and PYG can offer Asia- Pacific coverage to US/EU partners to construct global BPO/HCM solutions.
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Antisense Therapeutics has received formal written feedback from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on its development plans for ATL1102 for non-ambulant patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). In a phase II trial, ATL1102 performed extremely well. The regulatory path for a disease like DMD can be simplified and shortened. To achieve this outcome, though, determining the requirements of regulators is paramount.
NOVONIX (NVX.ASX) is developing a synthetic graphite anode material plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee and a cathode pilot line in Nova Scotia. There are two forms of graphite used in Li-ion batteries (LIBs): natural and synthetic. Despite the US having around 6.3Mt of natural graphite resource there is NO reserve and, consequently, NO production. Further, there is NO processing of ultra-pure synthetic graphite for LIBs either. As a result, the US imports 100% of its anode and 100% of its cathode materials primarily from China. With up to 185lbs or 85kg of graphite in an average Electric Vehicle’s (EVs) anode, this reliance on China for most of the battery supply chain risks limiting the US’ electrification aspirations. Global demand for LIB anode materials was 250kt in 2020 and BMI suggests this could grow to almost 3,000kt by 2030 and a remarkable 6,750kt by 2040. With totally exposed supply chains; Europe is moving to secure its battery materials; so pressure must be building for the US to do the same. NVX has first mover advantage as the only qualified local supplier of battery grade anode materials.
NOVONIX (NVX) announces strategic investor Phillips 66 (PSX) has entered into an agreement with NVX to acquire 77.9m new shares for US$150m (A$203m). PSX is the worlds largest producer of speciality petroleum coke a precursor for battery grade synthetic graphite anode materials found with an Enterprise Value of US$47.5Bn and assets of US$57Bn. Post investment, which is subject to shareholder approval, PSX will hold 16% of the expanded capital base of NVX and will have a Director nominated to the NVX Board. Given the Board, management and staff hold close to 50% of the NVX register, we consider it highly likely that shareholders will approve this transaction.
Terracom has counter-cyclically placed itself in a position to improve efficiency and margins plus pursue organic mine growth. Cashflows will further swell once currently depressed coal prices rebound. These assets appear undervalued compared to our Base Case $0.27/share NPV valuation of TER. TER has upside on management’s record of delivering new projects from currently controlled development assets and/or by opportunistically securing acquisitions.
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A new chapter is opening in Australia’s rich history of mineral endowment, as an emerging group of producers bring on-stream deposits of organic sulphate of potash (SoP), a premium fertiliser product. Trigg Mining (TMG) is a WA-based exploration company specifically focussed on the potassium mineral fertiliser Sulphate of Potash (SOP).
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We initiate coverage on Calima Energy (“Calima” or the “Company”) on a free cash flow (“FCF”) basis with a value of AUD0.025/share.
Calima is an Australian listed exploration and production (E&P) company, and a Canadian oil and gas pure play. Its assets include a large-scale liquids rich gas play in the Montney fairway in British Columbia, a well-established oil and gas producing region with a supportive energy production policy.
On April 30, 2021, Calima completed the acquisition of Blackspur Oil (“Blackspur’). Blackspur was caught out in a poor oil environment while laden with a heavy debt burden and Calima was able to capitalise on the opportunity, acquiring the target at a deep discount of C$61.5m, including C$40.0m in debt. This is against over C$200m invested by Blackspur since inception in 2012. The acquisition is earnings accretive and has raised Calima’s status to the realm of a mid-tier, ASX-listed oil producer.
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Lake Resources (LKE. ASX) announces low cost funding pathway Normally, an offtake contract is signed first and then project funding follows. However, in this case the reverse has occurred. The Export Credit Agency (ECA) of Britain, the UK Export Finance (UKEF) has provided a non-binding Expression of Interest (EOI) to provide or underwrite up to 70% of the finance for developing Kachi. Interestingly, the ECA has also indicated it could provide up to 70% of the cost of expanding Kachi. This really does support LKE’s earlier claim that the market is pushing for an expansion of Kachi. ECA debt normally comes in the form of guarantees. However, the EOI suggests the ECA may also direct lend; subject to due diligence and standard project finance terms. LKE suggests direct lending could comprise ~30% of Treasury linked debt with interest rates of around 3%. ECA guarantees should facilitate the completion of syndicated senior debt, at an estimated 5-6% in the current market. The effective “credit wrap” provided by ECA support, puts LKE in an attractive position to secure a Tier-1 offtake partner.
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Lake Resources (LKE. ASX) announces that its clean technology partner Lilac Solutions Ltd (Lilac), will join the Argentinian Kachi project, earning up to 25% at the asset level, subject to performance hurdles. Lilac brings a patented new untried technology to the lithium brine industry. However, offtakers and some investors perceive new technology risk to be a drag on project timelines. Addressing this, Lilac will take a direct participation in Kachi, which is testament to their belief in their patented ion-exchange technology, which although new to the lithium industry has been used extensively in the water and uranium industries. Lilac believes the time is right to investigate sustainable extraction technology in an area that produces 40% of the world’s lithium.
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In cashflow we trust – funding options expand. Increasingly carbon-conscious debt markets have reduced supply of credit to coal groups. In TER’s year-long quest to refinance its ~US$170m Euroclear Bond it succeeded in extending the maturity from 30th June 2021 until 8th October 2021. TER is in advanced negotiations with a consortium to replace this Bond, and secure extra funds for TER to consider a new South African mine and potentially invest in Guinean bauxite and iron ore; at a cheaper ~10%pa interest cost. The Euroclear’s cost is 12.5%pa plus 0.75% Blair Athol revenue.
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Antisense Therapeutics reported on Friday 30 September (2021), that it had received a draft opinion recommending agreement with the company’s Paediatric Investigation Plan (PIP) for the development of ATL1102 for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) from the Paediatric Committee (PDCO) for the European Medicines Agency (EMA). This is not a final decision, but we understand it is very unusual for the EMA not to adopt a recommended PIP. A PIP must be adopted by the EMA before a medicine can be approved for use in children in EU Member States. The receipt of the of the draft opinion by Antisense is a significant positive for the company.
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TNG Ltd (TNG) is an ASX-listed (ASX: TNG) technology owner and developer of the world-class Mount Peake near-surface vanadifferous titanomagnetite deposit. To unlock value, TNG will concentrate ore from its central Northern Territory mine for processing through its patented TIVAN® process produce three premium quality revenue streams: hi-purity vanadium pentoxide (V2O5) for steel alloys and Vanadium Redox Flow batteries, a quality titanium pigment for paints and a premium steel input with >64%Fe iron ore fines.
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In May 2021, we published a comprehensive research report (CRR) on Immutep Ltd. We were so impressed that we felt it imperative that a follow-up report valued the company, because the market was not seeing what we did: eftilagimod alpha (efti). This drug was giving a solid signal of activity as a monotherapy in a large breast cancer trial and extremely strong signals of clinical activity when used in combination with pembrolizumab (Keytruda®, Merck) to treat previously untreated/unresectable PD-1/L1 naïve non-small cell lung cancer and as a second-line treatment for PD-1/L-1 naïve recurrent head and neck cancer. Additionally, we saw a first-rate management team - an absolute requirement for a successful drug development company.
Over the past three years WTL has undergone a transformational restructure to reduce its focus and reliance on B2C and non- recurring revenue, to emerge as a primarily B2B-focused enterprise targeting recurring revenue lines. The successful implementation of the strategy and complementary acquisitions should now see the company return to profitable growth in
On our forecast, the business trades on a FY22 PE of 8.4x and EV/EBITDA of 5.1x. This is a large discount to peers, which on average are on 18x PE and EV/EBITDA of 7.0x. Successful execution of management’s strategy, coupled with potential acquisitions should result in a re-rating towards peers.
In May 2021, we published a comprehensive research report (CRR) on Immutep Ltd. We were so impressed that we felt it imperative that a follow-up report valued the company, because the market was not seeing what we did: eftilagimod alpha (efti). This drug was giving a solid signal of activity as a monotherapy in a large breast cancer trial and extremely strong signals of clinical activity when used in combination with pembrolizumab (Keytruda®, Merck) to treat previously untreated/unresectable PD-1/L1 naïve non-small cell lung cancer and as a second-line treatment for PD-1/L-1 naïve recurrent head and neck cancer. Additionally, we saw a first-rate management team - an absolute requirement for a successful drug development company.
In August 2021, we initiated coverage on Calima Energy (“Calima” or the “Company”), forecasting a value of A$0.025/share which translates to 0,26/share if one accounts for the 20:1 share consolidation completed on the 30th August 2021. The Company’s share price has risen substantially from $0.173/share at the beginning of September to $0.25/share on the 11th of October with no sign of stopping.
Calima is an Australian listed exploration and production (E&P) company, and a Canadian oil and gas pure play. Its assets include a large-scale liquids rich gas play in the Montney fairway in British Columbia, a well-established oil and gas producing region with a supportive energy production policy. In addition, Calima acquired Blackspur, a producing oil company which had previously delivered over 5,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) at its peak in 2018.
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LBY has a market leading position in NZ BNPL, and a growing presence in Australia and the UK. The large UK retail market of £403b and ~28% online penetration represents a significant opportunity for LBY, with only ~1.7% BNPL adoption (~6% of online) leaving significant runway for growth.
LBY has a capital efficient business model due to its differentiated weekly payment cycle, which allows it to turn over its capital base approximately 21x pa compared to 18x for fortnightly payment options.
LBY has developed a number of strategic partnerships with key merchants as well as professional sporting clubs, which strengthen the business in high growth sectors, raise brand awareness and drive customer acquisition. Growth in customers drives more merchants onto the platform, which in turn drives more customer acquisition, creating a virtuous cycle of growth.
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The green electrification mega-trend requires many types of energy storage to match intermittent renewable power generation to on-demand electricity needs. As for lithium, the emergence of new energy storage demand is a game changer for high-purity vanadium, with the accelerating pace of Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries deployment for grid-power storage backup. In this report we focus upon these changing dynamics for the vanadium industry, to becoming a new critical ingredient for the global energy transition.
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Magnis Energy Technologies (MNS.ASX) and un-listed green tech company C4V is developing iM3NY, a battery cells Gigafactory in New York State, where semi autonomous battery production will soon commence. The plant, which could be fully autonomous by mid 2022, will embrace Big Data, AI and smart automation to push down the cost of making some of the world’s greenest batteries. Technology risk is low as C4V’s proprietary battery cell chemistry has been qualified by ~60 parties and is part of the supply chain for the US Department of Defence and the US Department of Energy. Key risks include execution and scaling risk. However, the CEO of iM3NY was a senior member of the team, which brought Giga Nevada on line. iM3NY is presently ~40% complete, on schedule and under budget. Capacity plans include 32GWh by 2030. We ramp iM3NY at a slower pace for valuation purposes.
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Since ATL1102 returned impressive results in a phase II trial in non- ambulant Duchenne muscular dystrophy (naDMD) patients, Antisense Therapeutics (Antisense) has been perfecting its regulatory strategy for the compound. The next naDMD trial, if positive, will be central to a Marketing Authorisation Application (MAA) to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for naDMD patients. Antisense’s US strategy provides several options and leverages its European Union (EU) activities leading to a New Drug Application to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for naDMD. Now, it comes down to execution.
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We initiated on Magnis Energy Technologies (MNS.ASX) in December 2021 and since then, MNS has made four material announcements. Firstly; a conditional offtake contract for 600,000t of graphite concentrate from the Tanzanian Nachu Project (net 100%) was signed with Traxys, a global commodities merchant with annual revenue of ~US$6Bn; secondly; semi autonomous production has started at battery gigafactory iM3NY, thirdly; exciting Extra Fast Charge (EFC) battery tests were reported and most recently, the game changing launch of the Lithium Slim Energy Reserve (LiSER) battery platform, which supports C4V’s growing EFC capability.
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TerraCom reported their quarterly on 31st January and their monthly Coal Sales update for January on 8th February. We view both announcements as positive for TerraCom and give us improved confidence that the company can deliver on their 2022 production targets and comfortably meet their full debt repayment obligations.
At a macro level, conditions remain highly favourable for thermal coal producers. Industry forecasts and forward pricing indicate that current price levels seem likely for two more quarters at least. Taking advantage of this environment, Blair Athol production is fully sold until mid-May 2022.
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Lake Resources (LKE. ASX) – In this update we discuss surging lithium prices, successful infill drilling at Kachi (net 75%) and the opening of the resource at depth. The base case for the DFS, due midyear, has doubled to 50kt/year. Drilling has also commenced at one of LKE’s three other 100% owned northern sites located proximal to large developments. With M&A rampant in Argentina, LKE has announced its “100 Target Program”, where they aim to develop another 50kt/year, taking 2030 production to 100kt/year. Our focus remains Kachi. Thus, we consider land value only for these permits; upside to 100kt/year is considered a free option.
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TerraCom made two announcements to the ASX on the 28th February – the first was their 2021 Half Year 2021 result which indicated that TER continues to report strong operating metrics as well as enjoying buoyant thermal coal markets which is allowing them to pay down debt at an accelerated pace.
The second announcement was that they have signed a US$60million term sheet for the prepayment of coal with a major, long-term customer. Both announcements underscore the potential of TerraCom (TER) to payback their Euroclear bond facility far earlier than expectations and open the way for the company to reinstall dividend payments to shareholders.
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The news being reported about the performance of biotechnology has been dour, to say the least, for some time now (Matthew Fox, Markets Insider Article, 7 December 2021; Max Gelman, Endpoints News Article, 26 Jan 2022; Adam Feuerstein et al, Stat News Article, 28 Jan 2022). Those dour articles have been deserved with the iShares Biotechnology Exchange Traded Fund (ETF, NASDAQ: IBB) down 25% and the SPDR® S&P® Biotech ETF (NASDAQ: XBI) is down 45% from their highs. However, those articles are backward looking, and successful investors need to be looking forward.
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The news being reported about the performance of biotechnology has been dour, to say the least, for some time now (Matthew Fox, Markets Insider Article, 7 December 2021; Max Gelman, Endpoints News Article, 26 Jan 2022; Adam Feuerstein et al, Stat News Article, 28 Jan 2022). Those dour articles have been deserved with the iShares Biotechnology Exchange Traded Fund (ETF, NASDAQ: IBB) down 25% and the SPDR® S&P® Biotech ETF (NASDAQ: XBI) is down 45% from their highs. However, those articles are backward looking, and successful investors need to be looking forward.
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Lake Resources (LKE. ASX) – Securing a successful project financing is all about the fundability of the asset on a standalone basis. This is where emerging resource companies struggle. To offset risk at the asset level, LKE is actively seeking to reduce counterparty risk by dealing with credit worthy intermediaries, which deal with credit worthy customers. Bottom line: If LKE can create a synthetic investment grade credit rating at the asset level it will secure favourable project financing terms. So what has LKE announced?
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Two recent gravity surveys have considerably exceeded expectations and revealed potential for extensions to the existing MRE at Lake Throssell, plus a material growth opportunity at Lake Yeo. This reinforces the potential for a multi-decade, Tier-1 SOP production hub based around Lake Throssell.
TMG is currently completing work towards the PFS due early 2023, including drilling to start in Q3 2022, evaporation trials and permitting activities. Results from these programs will support the PFS and any future resource upgrade.
Benchmark SOP prices have risen to ~US$940/t due to recent geopolitical developments. The Oct 2021 Scoping Study assumed a SOP price of US$550/t and contained a sensitivity analysis showing every 10% increase in price drives a +$144m increase in the project NPV of $364m. The c.70% increase above the Scoping Study thus implies a project NPV of ~$1.4bn.
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Lake Resources (LKE. ASX) – LKE has signed two non-binding MOU’s in the space of 10 days. Ford Company (Ford) has signed an MOU for ~25,000t/year and last week Hanwa, a Japanese commodity trader signed a MOU for up to 25,000t/year. Subject to execution, this is an amazing feat as Ford and Hanwa are prepared to enter into longer term strategic partnerships with LKE. Commercial negotiations between LKE and both parties is still ongoing but is expected, especially if both parties make an investment in LKE, to de-risk the Kachi’s financing even further (net 75%).
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